Morning Digest: Susceptible Senate Democrats are all outraising the competitors

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Former NFL star Herschel Walker, the longtime Texas resident whom Donald Trump recruited to run again in his house state of Georgia, raised a smaller however nonetheless credible $3.8 million and had $2.5 million to spend. Walker’s haul was bigger than any of his Republican major opponents and left him with probably the most cash-on-hand, although a number of of his foes nonetheless have greater than sufficient to get their very own message out.

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In the meantime, in Arizona, Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly raised $7.2 million and had $13 million out there. Not like in Georgia, although, no Republican has emerged as the large favourite to tackle the incumbent. The GOP candidate who introduced in probably the most cash was businessman Jim Lamon, who raised a mere $133,000 from donors however self-funded $3 million and had by far the most important conflict chest within the major with $3.6 million.

Thiel Capital chief working officer Blake Masters was the one Republican to lift $1 million from contributors, and he had $865,000 to spend. However whereas Legal professional Normal Mark Brnovich arguably begins the race with probably the most statewide name-recognition, the nunchuck enthusiast took in an underwhelming $560,000 and had solely $515,000 on-hand.

Subsequent door in Nevada, Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto raised $3 million and had $8.3 million on-hand. Adam Laxalt, the 2018 gubernatorial nominee who’s the clear major frontrunner to take her on, introduced in $1.4 million since launching his marketing campaign in mid-August and had an identical $1.3 million left over, however surprisingly, an unheralded intra-party foe additionally did effectively. Sam Brown, an Military veteran we hadn’t beforehand talked about, took in $1 million from donors and completed September with $655,000; Brown additionally launched TV ads on Fox final week, although there is not any phrase on the scale of his purchase.

One other susceptible Senate Democrat, New Hampshire’s Maggie Hassan, raised $2.9 million and had $6.5 million to defend herself. Hassan, not like her counterparts, would not at present face any well-funded opposition, however that might instantly change if Senate Republicans efficiently recruit Gov. Chris Sununu.

There’s far more to see in different Senate contests throughout the nation, together with in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin—all of that are states the place Crew Blue is on the offensive. A really costly race can be shaping up in Florida the place Rep. Val Demings outraised Republican Sen. Marco Rubio $8.4 million to $5.9 million. Rubio, although, nonetheless ended September with a $9.6 million to $6 million cash-on-hand lead.

The battleground is way much less sure in the House thanks partially to redistricting, which is able to doubtless pit a number of pairs of incumbents towards each other in each primaries and normal elections. The one such matchup that is already set, although, is in West Virginia’s new 2nd District, the place Republican Reps. David McKinley and Alex Mooney stated final week that they’d run towards each other (albeit after every accidentally announcing for the wrong seat.)

McKinley represents way more of the brand new district, however Mooney begins with the monetary edge: Whereas Mooney solely outraised McKinley $175,000 to $170,000 in the course of the quarter, he ended September with an infinite $2.6 million to $630,000 cash-on-hand lead.

There’s rather a lot to see, so take a look at our House and Senate charts.

Redistricting

TX Redistricting: Texas’ Republican-run Senate and Home, which had beforehand every handed new redistricting plans for their very own chamber, gave approval to one another’s maps on Friday, sending them to Republican Gov. Greg Abbott for his signature. Each maps will lock in GOP majorities by diminishing the voting energy of Black and Latino voters.

The 2 homes were not quite so agreeable with regard to congressional districts, nonetheless: The Home made small modifications to the map on Sunday, solely to have these adjustments rejected that very same day by the Senate, which requested that the dispute be handed over to a convention committee made up of legislators from each chambers. That committee soon released a new proposal, which lawmakers nonetheless must vote on. The present particular session finish of the legislature is about to finish on Tuesday.

Governors

FL-Gov: State Sen. Annette Taddeo entered the Democratic primary to tackle Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis on Monday, becoming a member of a subject that features Rep. Charlie Crist and state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried. Although her opponents are each better-known, Taddeo, who was born in Colombia, stands aside as the one notable Hispanic candidate within the race.

Taddeo ran for workplace unsuccessfully a number of instances earlier than lastly successful a particular election to the state Senate in 2017. In 2008, she misplaced a bid to Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen after the chair of the DCCC’s Crimson to Blue program, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, refused to get involved within the race due to her fondness for the incumbent. Two years later, she sought a seat on the Miami-Dade County Fee however fell quick; then in 2014, she really served as Crist’s running-mate in his gubernatorial comeback bid, which their ticket misplaced by only a 48-47 margin.

In 2016, she narrowly misplaced a major for the twenty sixth Congressional District to former Rep. Joe Garcia, who went on to get whooped by Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo, the person who’d ousted him two years earlier. Luck lastly broke Taddeo’s approach the next 12 months, when Republican state Sen. Frank Artiles resigned after utilizing racial slurs to explain fellow lawmakers. In an ensuing particular election for Artiles’ Miami-area district, Taddeo defeated Republican state Rep. Jose Felix Diaz by a 51-47 margin, then secured a full four-year time period the next 12 months.

Taddeo, whom the Miami Herald describes as “a frequent visitor on Miami’s Spanish-language radio stations,” has lengthy been crucial of Democratic outreach to Latino voters, a key constituency that shifted sharply to the precise final 12 months. Although she begins out at a substantial drawback in identify recognition and fundraising, she might chart a path to the nomination much like the one taken in 2018 by former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, who beat out better-funded opponents partially as a result of his rivals have been reluctant to assault a outstanding Black man, figuring out they’d must rely closely on African American voters to win within the normal election.

OH-Gov: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown endorsed Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley for governor on Monday, a number of days after he backed Rep. Tim Ryan within the race for Senate. Whaley faces Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley for the precise to tackle Republican Gov. Mike DeWine subsequent 12 months.

OK-Gov: Oklahoma Metropolis-based pollster Amber Built-in has released a new poll displaying Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt successful 49-33 over faculties Superintendent Pleasure Hofmeister, who recently left the GOP and have become a Democrat particularly to problem Stitt. The governor is much better recognized, with a 46-37 favorability score, whereas Hofmeister posts a 30-27 rating. Amber Built-in is a Republican agency however seems to have performed this survey by itself behalf.

VA-Gov: New fundraising reports present that Democrat Terry McAuliffe outraised Republican Glenn Youngkin $12.6 million to $7 million in the course of the month of September and outspent him $17.5 million to $9.5 million. Regardless of spending extra, nonetheless, McAuliffe nonetheless loved a large money benefit of $7.8 million to $3.5 million heading into the ultimate stretch of the marketing campaign.

In the meantime, one other McAuliffe ally is getting in on the motion. Politico stories that the American Federation of Academics is launching a “high six-figure” buy to run a new TV ad wherein dad and mom and educators slam Youngkin for wanting to scale back funding for public schooling and reward McAuliffe for his efforts on behalf of scholars and academics.

WI-Gov: For no matter motive, Donald Trump issued a not-tweet over the weekend exhorting Sean Duffy, the previous congressman and “Actual World” star, to run for governor of Wisconsin … regardless that Duffy offered his house in central Wisconsin final month and now seems to dwell in New Jersey, in keeping with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Duffy’s identify hasn’t come up since a brief aside in Politico again in February, and he is by no means stated something about his potential curiosity. However what stands out most is Trump’s snub of probably the most outstanding Republican within the race, former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, who after all sought to tie herself as closely to Trump as possible when she kicked off her marketing campaign simply after Labor Day.

Home

CA-21: Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas introduced Monday that he would take on Republican Rep. David Valadao, a transfer that offers Crew Blue a protracted sought-after candidate in a Central Valley seat that Joe Biden carried 54-44 last year. Salas represents over 60% of the current 21st Congressional District, although there is not any telling what Valadao’s constituency will appear to be after California’s impartial redistricting fee completes its work.

Salas ran in a competitive Assembly race in 2012 at a time when California Democrats have been combating laborious to safe a two-thirds supermajority within the legislature that might permit them to beat years of GOP intransigence. Salas ultimately beat Republican Pedro Rios 53-47 as Barack Obama was carrying his seat 56-42, and Democrats received what would show to be a transformative supermajority. Two years later, he won a rematch 55-45 regardless of the horrible political local weather for his social gathering.

Throughout his tenure, Salas established himself because the one of many leaders of the informal moderate Democratic caucus. Amongst different issues, Salas pissed off the Democratic leadership in 2017 when he voted towards a fuel and automobile registration tax to fund infrastructure and highway repairs. Salas misplaced his chairmanship of the Enterprise and Professions Committee as a consequence, however he was picked two years later to run the Joint Legislative Audit Committee. Although there was talk of him taking on Valadao in 2018, he determined to remain put, solely to look at Valadao lose in a shocker to Democrat TJ Cox. (Valadao managed to unseat Cox two years later.)

The assemblyman joins a crowded top-two major to tackle Valadao, who was one among 10 Home Republicans to vote to question Donald Trump. Not one of the different Democrats, although, had so much as $80,000 on-hand on the finish of September, whereas Valadao had simply over $1 million to spend. Valadao faces an intra-party problem from former Fresno Metropolis Councilman Chris Mathys, who unsuccessfully ran for workplace in New Mexico in 2018 and 2020 earlier than retiring to California. Mathys had slightly below $300,000 within the financial institution, nearly all of it self-funded.

IL-03: Former Blue Canine Rep. Dan Lipinski responded to the release of draft congressional districts last week by publicly expressing interest in a 3rd major battle with freshman Democratic Rep. Marie Newman. “I’ve all the time stated that I would must see the map earlier than contemplating it,” stated Lipinski, including, “Now that this map is out, I am having a look, understanding that the map should change.” Newman, who narrowly misplaced to Lipinski in 2018 however received a rematch in 2020, raised $230,000 during the third quarter and had $440,000 available on the finish of September.

NC-04: Democratic Rep. David Worth, who was elected in 1986, misplaced in 1994, and received once more in 1996, introduced Monday that he would not seek an 18th term next year in North Carolina’s 4th Congressional District.

Worth’s constituency, which currently includes the Durham and Chapel Hill space, backed Joe Biden 67-32. The Republican legislature has drawn up the 4th to be safely blue turf in every of the three maps it handed over the past decade with a view to strengthen its maintain on different constituencies, and the brand new model of Worth’s district is likewise nearly sure to stay closely Democratic.

State Sen. Wiley Nickel rapidly responded to Worth’s departure by declaring his candidacy to succeed his fellow Democrat. The Raleigh-area legislator had opened up a fundraising account all the way in which again in November with out declaring what seat he was working for (his paperwork listed his race as “Home District 00”), saying on the time that, whereas he did not intend to run in a major towards Worth or close by Rep. Deborah Ross, “if there’s an open seat, we’ll strongly contemplate it.” Nickel ended September with $192,000 on-hand for his bid for the 00th District, cash he can now spend to win the 4th.

Nickel is unlikely to have the primary to himself, although. State Utilities Commissioner Floyd McKissick, a former state senator and the son and namesake of the late civil rights figure, informed the Information & Observer he was , although he acknowledged, “The largest query is what the district will appear to be.” State Sen. Mike Woodard and Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam additionally stated they have been contemplating, whereas state Sen. Natalie Murdock did not rule it out, saying she additionally needed to see what occurred with redistricting. State Rep. Graig Meyer, although, rapidly stated no.

Worth’s departure will finish a protracted profession in each politics and academia. The Tennessee native, who attended the College of North Carolina for his undergraduate diploma, first arrived on Capitol Hill in 1963 as an aide to Alaska’s first U.S. senator, Democrat Bob Bartlett. Worth went on to earn his doctorate in political science and educate at Yale in Connecticut, the place his spouse efficiently ran for native workplace, earlier than returning to the Tar Heel State in 1973 to show at Duke. He concurrently labored for Jimmy Carter’s 1976 state marketing campaign and served because the North Carolina Democratic Social gathering’s govt director.

Worth was chair of the state social gathering in 1984, a disastrous 12 months for Democrats that included the lack of three Home seats, nevertheless it proved formative: He’d later recount that he “made a reasonably fast determination to attempt to recapture a kind of seats.” Worth did simply that in 1986 when he went up towards Republican Rep. Invoice Cobey, a freshman who had narrowly defeated a Democratic incumbent two years earlier. Worth won the primary 48-32 forward of an unpleasant normal election towards Cobey, who apologized that September for his fundraising enchantment arguing the Democrat would not “take a robust stand for the rules outlined within the phrase of God.”

Worth dispatched Cobey 56-44 and had no hassle holding on till the 1994 GOP wave hit him laborious. His Republican foe that 12 months was Fred Heineman, who stepped down as Raleigh police chief to run and dealt Price a 50.4-49.6 defeat. The ex-congressman went again to instructing however was certainly not completed with politics, quickly searching for a rematch with the brand new incumbent.

Heineman turned out to be a nasty match for this Democratic-leaning seat, however he turned finest know for remarks he made early in his tenure declaring, “After I see a first-class particular person who makes $80,000 a 12 months, he is decrease center class. After I see somebody who’s making wherever from $300,000 to $750,000, that is center class. After I see anybody above that, that is higher center class.”

Worth made use of these feedback in a 1996 spot titled, “Earth to Fred” and likewise made positive to tie the incumbent to Speaker Newt Gingrich’s hardline insurance policies. Heineman himself was additionally compelled off the marketing campaign path for weeks after being hospitalized with a critical fever, and he scarcely appeared in public in the course of the the rest of the race. Whereas each side noticed an in depth race simply weeks forward of Election Day, Worth ended up reclaiming his seat by a comfortable 54-44 margin.

Worth by no means had one other powerful race for the remainder of his profession. It appeared that his fortunate streak would possibly finish in 2012 after the GOP legislature placed Price together in the same district with fellow Democratic Rep. Brad Miller, however Miller determined to retire moderately than undergo a major wherein he acknowledged he’d have been the “the underdog.”

Worth himself would proceed to write down political science texts from Congress, including his 1992 work “The Congressional Expertise: An Establishment Remodeled.” Worth, who simply printed the fourth version of that ebook this 12 months, defined, “A political science colleague persuaded me that I ought to preserve a journal and in some unspecified time in the future write up what it is prefer to get elected and get located in an establishment. And so I reluctantly did that [and] came upon that I really loved it greater than I believed I might.”

OH-15: The GOP agency Medium Shopping for stories that the NRCC will start a coordinated TV buy on Tuesday with Republican Mike Carey forward of subsequent month’s particular election. Nonetheless, not like impartial expenditures, which could be limitless, the FEC sets a cap of $52,500 when social gathering committees work straight with Home campaigns. Individually, Democratic state Rep. Allison Russo said she’d raised $549,000 between July 15 and Oct. 13. Carey doesn’t seem to have shared his fundraising numbers but, although stories are usually not due on the FEC till Thursday.

OR-05, OR-06: In new remarks, Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader’s workforce wouldn’t reveal whether or not the incumbent would run for the brand new fifth Congressional District, the place he lives, or the bluer 6th District, which includes more of his constituents. His communications director merely stated, “His house is in Canby, which stays in Oregon’s fifth Congressional District. Whereas I can affirm Rep. Schrader is working for Congress once more, I’ve no additional bulletins presently.”

A number of Democrats are eyeing the 6th District, however the average Schrader, who apologized earlier this year for evaluating the thought of impeaching Donald Trump to a “lynching,” could also be in for a major even when he runs within the fifth. Fellow Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who lately completed a stint as interim city manager of the small neighborhood of Expertise, final week confirmed her interest within the new fifth District. She addressed the potential for taking up Schrader, saying, “Usually I would not contemplate difficult an incumbent Democrat. Nonetheless, with Kurt Schrader, I haven’t got to make a lot of an argument to steer lots of people.”

McLeod-Skinner served as Crew Blue’s 2018 nominee within the safely pink 2nd District, a race wherein she raised $1.3 million however lost to Republican incumbent Greg Walden 56-39. She ran final 12 months for secretary of state and took last in the three-way primary with 28%; the winner, with 36%, was Shemia Fagan, who went on to prevail within the normal election.

On the Republican aspect, in the meantime, state Rep. Shelly Boshart Davis has said no to a bid for the 5th. Former state Rep. Knute Buehler, the GOP’s 2018 gubernatorial nominee who misplaced final 12 months’s major to succeed Walden, additionally made it clear he wasn’t working for Congress once more.

PA-18: Pennsylvania Rep. Mike Doyle, who was one of many uncommon Home Democrats to flip a seat in the course of the 1994 Republican wave, introduced Monday that he was retiring after 14 terms in office. The present model of the 18th Congressional District, which incorporates most of Pittsburgh, supported Joe Biden 65-34, and there is little query it’ll stay safely blue turf after redistricting is full.

The Democratic subject right here already consists of legislation professor Jerry Dickinson, who was searching for a rematch towards Doyle after losing last year’s primary 67-33. Dickinson, who ended September with $160,000 on-hand for his new marketing campaign, most likely will not be the one notable candidate for lengthy, nonetheless, as state Rep. Summer time Lee filed FEC paperwork hours earlier than the congressman made his plans recognized. WPXI reported a number of weeks in the past that Lee intended to challenge the congressman for renomination, although she hadn’t publicly signaled her curiosity earlier than Monday.

Doyle received his begin in native politics as a Republican when he was elected to the Swissvale Borough Council in 1977. Two years later, he went to work as chief of workers to the newly elected Republican state Sen. Frank Pecora. Doyle nonetheless held that submit in 1992 when Pecora switched parties, a transfer that gave Democrats management of the chamber for the primary time in 12 years. (They might lose it in 1994 and have but to regain energy within the Senate.)

Doyle, who himself had additionally lately joined the Democratic Social gathering, determined to run for the 18th District in 1994 to succeed none apart from Rick Santorum, the hardline Republican congressman who was leaving to challenge Democratic Sen. Harris Wofford. Two years earlier, Santorum had decisively defeated Pecora, who’d received an especially crowded Democratic major amidst what Congressional Quarterly called “simply probably the most convoluted Home race within the state, if not the nation.” Nonetheless, George H.W. Bush’s poor performance in the Pittsburgh area seat made Crew Blue optimistic about taking the seat again.

Like his previous boss, Doyle additionally took part in a packed nomination battle that included lots of the identical foes Pecora had crushed in 1992. Doyle ended up squeaking previous Mike Adams, who was additionally the runner-up within the prior major, 19.9-18.0, an accomplishment that makes him one of very few sitting House members to win a nomination with lower than 20% of the vote.

Doyle’s normal election opponent was John McCarty, who had served as an aide for the late Sen. John Heinz, a average Republican (whose widow Teresa would later marry Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry). This changed into an uncommon contest between a Republican who recognized as pro-choice and the anti-abortion Doyle. Whereas 1994 was a devastating 12 months for Democrats throughout the nation, Doyle flipped the seat by a decisive 55-45 margin. (Three different Home Democrats additionally picked up open GOP-held House seats that year. Santorum, in the meantime, ousted Wofford 49-47.)

The brand new congressman won the following cycle 56-40 and by no means got here near dropping re-election throughout the remainder of his profession. Doyle continued to oppose abortion, however not like Dan Lipinski, his former colleague from Illinois, he hardly ever infected the bottom. In 2011, for instance, Doyle explained his vote against a law barring girls from receiving tax credit or deductions for abortion procedures by saying, “It is a big step past limiting federal funding for abortion – it will restrict how Individuals spend their OWN cash and deny American girls entry to a full vary of well being care providers, and I am unable to assist that.”

Doyle, although, remained a supporter of the notorious Hyde Modification, which retains federal cash from funding most abortions, until 2019, one thing Dickinson used towards the incumbent of their major final 12 months. Although Doyle won 67-33, the margin was his smallest in a nomination battle since his preliminary 1994 squeaker.

TX-08: Christian Collins, who beforehand served as marketing campaign supervisor for retiring Rep. Kevin Brady, introduced Monday that he would seek the Republican nomination to succeed him. This seat, which incorporates Houston’s northern suburbs, has been safely pink turf for a very long time, and that is not going to vary after redistricting.

TX-10: Manor Mayor Larry Wallace, a Democrat, introduced Friday that he was suspending his campaign against Republican Rep. Michael McCaul. The Texas Tribune notes that the GOP legislature is about to make the brand new tenth District redder and pass over Wallace’s neighborhood.

TX-37, TX-35: Whereas redistricting continues to be incomplete in Texas (see our separate TX Redistricting merchandise above), Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett announced on Monday that he’d search re-election in the proposed 37th District, a safely blue seat that would come with a lot of the town of Austin, moderately than within the thirty fifth, which he represents now. The brand new thirty fifth would additionally stay deep blue and largely retain its present configuration, a preposterous gerrymander that hyperlinks the Austin space with San Antonio by way of a pencil-thin hall alongside Interstate 35.

VA-07: Republican Del. John McGuire, who attended the infamous Jan. 6 Trump rally that preceded that day’s assault on the Capitol, indicated this week that he was excited about a second marketing campaign towards Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger.

McGuire’s team announced that he’d introduced in $372,000 for the quarter to make use of in his re-election to his heavily Republican legislative seat and added, “If McGuire have been working in a congressional race, his complete can be the most important quantity raised by any GOP congressional candidate or incumbent within the state of Virginia.” If McGuire have been working in a congressional race, after all, he could not really use any of this cash for that marketing campaign, nor might he make the most of Virginia’s nonexistent contribution limits.

McGuire ran for Congress in 2020 however lost the GOP’s nominating convention 56-44 to fellow Del. Nick Freitas, who went on to lose to Spanberger 51-49.

Mayors

Los Angeles, CA Mayor: Democratic Rep. Karen Bass picked up an endorsement Friday from Antonio Villaraigosa, who served as mayor from 2005 to 2013.

Obituaries

Former Republican Rep. Dan Benishek, who flipped a northern Michigan seat within the 2010 GOP wave after successful a major by 15 votes, died Friday at the age of 69. Benishek went on to win a decent 2012 normal election earlier than simply prevailing in 2014, and whereas he initially planned to blow off his pledge to serve simply three phrases, he finally retired for the 2016 cycle.

Benishek labored as a surgeon earlier than he determined to run towards veteran Rep. Bart Stupak, a well known chief of conservative Democrats, in Michigan’s 1st District, which included the state’s Northern Peninsula in addition to areas to the south. The beforehand little-known contender attracted nationwide consideration when he appeared as a Sean Hannity guest in April of 2010. He received even higher information days later when Stupak, who had always won by double digits, determined to retire.

Nonetheless, whereas Democrats rapidly consolidated round state Rep. Gary McDowell of their quest to carry this seat, which had backed Barack Obama 50-48 two years earlier, Benishek now needed to make it by means of an extremely messy major. State Sen. Jason Allen jumped in following Stupak’s retirement and consolidated establishment support, whereas Benishek pitched himself as a conservative outsider. Benishek finally prevailed by simply 15 votes in a contest that took two weeks to settle, however the political local weather helped propel him to a decisive 52-41 win over McDowell in November.

McDowell sought a rematch regardless of that broad loss, and this time, their race nearly ended very in a different way. McDowell went after the new congressman’s support for Speaker Paul Ryan’s finances, which the Democrat stated would “finish Medicare inside 10 years.” Mitt Romney carried the district 54-45, however Benishek only survived by a 48.1-47.6 margin. That shut name gave Democrats hope they may retake the seat in 2014, however one other GOP wave helped the incumbent turn back retired Army Gen. Jerry Cannon 52-45.

Benishek introduced in March of 2015 that he was disregarding the term-limits pledge he’d made in 2010, nevertheless it rapidly turned clear that he’d be in for a tough experience. Fellow Republicans, together with his previous foe Allen, began making noises about challenging him within the major, whereas former state Democratic Social gathering chair Lon Johnson quickly emerged as a formidable rival.

Benishek, citing that formerly abandoned term-limits promise, ended up declaring months later that he would retire in spite of everything, and the outgoing congressman went on to back state Sen. Tom Casperson to succeed him. GOP voters, nonetheless, opted to go with retired Marine Lt. Gen. Jack Bergman over Casperson and Allen, and the brand new GOP nominee went on to decisively maintain the seat within the fall.